Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index Reveals Highest Inflation in Over Two Years, With Prices Up 2.9%
Concern About Rising Prices Continues to Climb as Low- and Middle-Income Households Face Disproportionate Inflationary Pressure
CHICAGO, June 08, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Numerator, a consumer data and technology company, released its May 2026 Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI) with an advance read on inflation trends across everyday consumer goods, featuring expanded breakouts by income level, generation, and U.S. census region. According to Numerator, prices for everyday household purchases increased 0.47% in May following a 0.43% increase in April and being essentially flat in March. In May, prices for everyday goods are up 2.9% versus a year ago. A similar trend is expected for the comparable categories covered in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI release scheduled for Wednesday.
Similar to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Numerator CGPI tracks prices and changes in consumer purchases over time. The data cover approximately 20% of the consumption basket captured in the overall PCE price index, and closely tracks the PCE Food & Beverage index, offering a reliable signal of retail price changes experienced by U.S. consumers.
“May marks a notable convergence of trends: prices for everyday goods saw their largest year-over-year increase in more than two years, while consumer concern about rising prices reached a record high since Numerator began tracking consumer sentiment in January 2024,” said Paul Stanley, Senior Economist, Numerator. “While prices can be volatile month over month, consecutive months of acceleration suggest this may not be temporary. Cost pressures are building across everyday goods and placing the greatest strain on low- and middle-income households, a disparity that is unlikely to ease while gas and energy prices remain elevated.”
Additional key findings from Numerator’s May CGPI:
- Prices for everyday household purchases accelerated in May 2026, increasing by 0.47% after a 0.43% increase in April 2026.
- Over the past 12 months, prices for everyday household purchases are up 2.9% as annual inflation edged up in May for the second consecutive month.
- Low income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 34.9% and 38.2%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 32.9% national average.
- High-income households have insulated themselves as inflation has accelerated, experiencing just 0.4% inflation since February 2026 vs. 1.0% and 1.1% for low- and middle-income households, respectively.
- Regionally, consumers in the South census region have experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018.
For a methodology description of the Numerator CGPI, or to download the data charts, visit numerator.com/inflation.
DISCLAIMER
The Numerator Inflation Report has been prepared for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Numerator shall have no liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage resulting from the use of or reliance on the above-mentioned information.
METHODOLOGY
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that is consistent with the structure of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE Price Index.
The index is calculated from verified, item-level transactions provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends. The dataset uses verified household purchase data from the demand side, offering visibility into consumer behavior as prices evolve.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
About Numerator
Numerator is a data company transforming how consumers and markets are understood. Powered by advanced technology and proprietary, zero-party purchase and survey data from more than one million households, Numerator provides visibility into consumer behavior and attitudes across consumer goods, retail, restaurants, tech and media, management consulting, institutional investors, and the public sector. Headquartered in Chicago, Numerator drives decisions at the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies in more than 50 countries.
Bob Richter Numerator 212-802-8588 press@numerator.com
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