Prosper says U.S. consumers are still spending, but under more pressure

Prosper Insights & Analytics says June 2026 data show consumer confidence and spending plans improved from May, even as grocery and gas costs pushed households toward more practical, value-focused behavior. The report points to resilient demand, but a more selective shopper that is trimming extras and prioritizing necessities.

Why it matters: - U.S. consumers are still spending, but rising everyday costs are pushing more households to trade down, budget harder and favor value. - The shift matters for retailers, brands and investors because demand is holding up, but it is becoming more selective and less forgiving. - Categories tied to necessity, utility and clear savings appear better positioned than impulse-driven or discretionary purchases.

What happened: - Prosper Insights & Analytics said its June 2026 Consumer Snapshot shows a resilient U.S. consumer facing growing pressure from inflation in visible household categories. - Consumer confidence rose to 40.9% in June from 39.9% in May and 40.1% in June 2025. - Prosper’s 90-day Spending Score increased to 83.07 from 82.84 in May and 81.14 a year earlier. - The report said the consumer has not shut down, even as budget strain continues to build. - Price-increase awareness rose across key essentials, especially groceries, where all four tracked grocery categories increased by roughly 3.4 to 4.5 percentage points month over month. - Household budgeting pressure intensified around fuel costs and related trade-offs.

The details: - 35.6% of adults said their standard of living has decreased, up from 31.4% in May. - 36.6% said they will drive less because of fluctuating gas prices, compared with 36.2% in May and 29.4% in June 2025. - 25.1% said they are spending less on groceries because of gas, up from 22.1% in May and 18.4% a year ago. - Only 26.3% said gas prices had no major impact on their spending, down from 28.2% in May and 39.9% in June 2025. - Prosper said fuel costs remain a direct way macroeconomic pressure turns into real consumer trade-offs. - The Consumer Mood Index rose to 99.6 from 99.0 in May, but stayed below 100.6 in June 2025 and below the 100 baseline. - The share of adults saying they are becoming more practical and realistic in their purchases jumped to 41.4% from 35.0% in May. - The share focusing on just what they need increased to 43.1% from 39.4% in May. - Major purchase data showed rotation rather than retreat. - Compared with last year, vacation travel plans are down, while major home improvements, home-buying intentions and car-buying plans have improved. - Prosper’s Auto Outlook points to an increase in auto and light truck vehicle purchases in June compared with May. - Amazon Prime membership stands at 58.7%, compared with 59.1% in June 2025. - Walmart+ has climbed to 27.8%, up from 22.7% last year and 19.6% two years ago.

Between the lines: - The data point to a consumer that is still functioning, but with less cushion and less optimism than a year ago. - Spending is not disappearing. It is shifting toward categories consumers see as practical, necessary or worth financing. - The rise in value ecosystems suggests shoppers are looking for built-in savings, convenience and a clearer reason to buy. - Investor exposure looks stronger in value-led retail, membership models, autos and housing-linked categories, while travel and basket-trimming categories may face more pressure.

What's next: - Prosper said the June data reinforce a selective consumer thesis centered on value-led retail, membership ecosystems, autos and housing-linked categories. - The company expects more caution around travel and categories exposed to basket trimming. - Marketers will need sharper value messages, clearer pricing and stronger convenience to convert a more selective shopper. - For a 5 minute audio briefing, listen to Prosper's podcast on Spotify. - To learn more about Prosper’s Demand DNA macro forecast signals, email info@goProsper.com.

The bottom line: - June data show a consumer that is still in the market, but increasingly pressured by groceries, gas and tighter household budgets.